YouGov poll of Liberal Democrat members gives it to Huhne but only just

11.30.08am GMT Thu 9th Feb 2006

Chris Huhne - will he win?

A YouGov Poll of 401 Liberal Democrat members (polled between 7th and 9th February), has put Chris Hunhe in the lead amongst first preferences and wins overall with second preference counted. The poll was commissioned by ex-Conservative MEP and now Liberal Democrat John Stevens, and as an Internet poll will have questioned more activists than armchair members - which may give Huhne an advantage (as the activists are more likely to have heard of him).

First preference voting, excluding don't knows were:

Chris Huhne - 38%

Sir Menzies Campbell - 34%

Simon Hughes - 27%

After re-allocating Hughes' second preferences the result was:

Chris Huhne 52%

Sir Menzies Campbell 48%

Other results that jumped out of me from the poll included (link to the full results is also below):

Liberal Democrats were most concerned with protecting civil liberties and combating climate change, in favour of increasing 'Green Taxes', keeping a minimum nuclear deterrent and think troops should be out of Iraq by the end of the year. I would agree with all, although less in favour of a nuclear deterrent (I need to be persuaded).

58% of those surveyed think Sir Menzies has the right kind experience to lead the Liberal Democrats (23% for Hughes and 16% for Hunhe), Chris Huhne leads on knowing about real life outside of politics (52%). On honesty Sir Menzies scores 46% compared to Hughes 14% (I wondering if his sexuality and his earlier denials have led to this poor result). 50% think Sir Menzies would make an effective Minister (19% for Hughes and 25% for Hunhe),

They also asked specific questions about the candidates - 36% of those surveyed thought Sir Menzies too old to lead the Liberal Democrats, 38% thought Chris too inexperienced to lead the Liberal Democrats and 40% thought Simon was too unreliable to lead the Liberal Democrats.

On winning votes, Chris wins out as the most likely to attract women's votes at 42% (Sir Menzies gets 14% and Simon gets 20%) and Simon is the most likely to attract young people with 43% (Chris is a close second with 40%, Sir Menzies trails in with 7%).

However Sir Menzies is the most likely to unite the party (48%), best to challenge Blair and Cameron (36%) and comes over best on the tv and radio (33%)

Related Link:

See the full results for the YouGov poll