Bede and the BNP

7.30.00am GMT Thu 15th Feb 2007

As there are no West Midlands by-elections today I thought I would take the opportunity to reflect on last week's in Bede (Bedworth). Labour held the seat, the BNP came second, the Conservatives third and Alice Field and the Liberal Democrats fourth. I had predicted (both here and on vote-2007.co.uk) Labour would lose and that either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats would win - so how did I get it so wrong (and it was a genuine prediction rather than spin!). I am told that both Labour and the Conservatives were surprised by the result too.

First I should start by congratulating the Liberal Democrat campaign. We have not fought Bede for a good number of years and Alice Field and her team ran a really good campaign. The campaign team were not fantastically experienced in running by-elections and did a good job on limited resources and time, in many other places they could have won on the campaign they ran.

Second my prediction was based on my and others experiences on the doorstep a couple of weeks before Poll. In the area may well have been our best and Labour's worst area but never before have I had such a high proportion of previous Labour voters tell me they will never vote Labour again, having re-checked with others who canvassed separately from me, included experienced canvassers and an MP, they say they had the same experience - we surely couldn't have all been wrong, could we?

1,750 people voted in the by-election, which took place on a very snowy Thursday. The final result was:

Labour 658

BNP 546

Conservative 301

Alice Field - Liberal Democrat 119

English Democrat 75

Independent 43

UKIP 8

There are many reasons why I could have been so out on the result, below are just a few.

It was a Labour seat and if they had lost they would have also lost control of the Borough, the Conservatives were, a relatively close, second previously - both had a massive interest in ensuring they won and both sent MPs/VIPs to the ward to campaign.

The BNP also worked hard, I perhaps was too quick to dismiss them (more on this later). When I was out canvassing with Alice we saw them canvassing. They appeared to be canvassing those that had not voted previously - perhaps feeding on people's disengagement or disillusion with politics. It will be interesting to know how the marked register from this by-election compares to that from the local elections. I am also told, and didn't know at the time, that the BNP has printing facilities in Bedworth where much of the West Midlands literature is produced so they may have been able to pull in BNP members from outside Bedworth. Again there is nothing wrong with bringing people in from outside - I am constantly trying to get people to go and help in by-elections, I just hadn't expected the BNP to be so well organised at doing it.

There were seven candidates offering a lot of choice, more than Bede has ever had before. At least four parties were claiming they could win - Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the BNP. This could have led to confusion of who was best placed to beat Labour allowing them to be re-elected on fewer than 38% of the vote. I am not saying that the various parties should not have claimed to win but normally it is easier to the electorate to see who has the best chance, I didn't see much use of a barchart or the result last time from either the Conservatives or Labour which is often used to set the scene.

Other factors may have included the weather and the news. The weather - it was horrid - did the more liberal minded folk stay at home as we didn't inspire them enough and did the BNP inspire they supporters to come out and vote against the 'establishment' parties. I have also seen a theory that the arrests of some Muslims in Birmingham may have helped the BNP vote solidify; I am not convinced by this one.

Of course another possibility is I was just really bad at calling this election!

However whatever the result we need to be more aware of the threat of the BNP, they are standing more often and doing better - I think they are averaging 15% where they stand now! It is also true they are tending to stand where the Liberal Democrats are historically weak and where all parties are not engaging the electorate as much as they should. So what can we do to try and stop the rise of the BNP?

Firstly stand, we should of course have a candidate in every election and every by-election, this is even more important where the BNP stand just being on the ballot paper stops them getting all the anti-Labour and anti-Conservative votes. There are figures that suggest that the BNP do worse if the Liberal Democrats stand.

Secondly we should come out strongly, and early, against the BNP explain why they are wrong. Again there is research that says whichever party/candidate comes out hardest, and earliest, against the BNP get the vast majority of the anti-BNP vote.

Thirdly use the media, don't hold back and be nice - the BNP wouldn't be nice.

Fourthly work with the Anti-Nazi League and anyone else opposing the BNP in order to ensure you campaign is as effective as it can possibly be.

Finally and most importantly try to avoid the BNP gaining from disillusion and disengagement by being proper community politicians and work all year round - it's not just a slogan! If we engage ourselves properly in our wards and within the community people may not hold politicians in such low-regard and allow the BNP to thrive.

Of course that all works best if there are the resources and people to do it. In Bede the by-election was a very short campaign and frankly we didn't have the history in the ward either electorally or as community politicians.

There is something we can all do to help the next Bede - go and help! Go and help early and often, a massive thank you to everyone who helped in Bede - we even had a helper from Watford one weekend - he knows how important fighting the BNP is. If you want to help tackle the BNP or in any by-elections/elections then join the West Midlands Liberal Democrats Active Regional Campaigner scheme - email me on arc@colin-ross.org.uk or comment to this story.