Is it going Obama's way?

2.22.55pm GMT Sun 10th Feb 2008

This was written before and 9 February voting started and published before I saw any results. I will post those results later and we will see how correct I have been.

I have spent a little bit of time looking at the Democrat results so far and have a little look ahead at the next seven contests. I think to 'big mo' is moving Obama's way, this doesn't mean he will win - I think it will now come down to the Super Delegates (Members of Congress, former Presidents and other important types), it may now be impossible for either Obama or Clinton to win without Super Delegates now.

One of the real problems watching the Democrat race is they award delegates proportionally (well ish), but in many different ways in different states - the Republican's have made it quite easy by (mainly) having a winner-takes all system. Of course the other issue is some states have Primaries and some have Caucuses, oh and some have non-binding votes!

Obama, so far, has won more States, but less delegates. However what is clear is that Obama and Clinton are both doing very well, I suspect any other year not fighting each other they would have walked it.

Obama has won more of the smaller States and far more of the States have Caucuses. Caucuses involve voters meeting and discussing how they will vote in a much more public way. There are two schools of thoughts as to why Obama is doing better, the first is he has a much better on-the-ground organisation than Clinton, the second is what is called the 'Bradley effect' where people are less likely to vote for a black person in private than in public - race is a major factor in the contest with blacks overwhelmingly support Obama, Latinos supporting Clinton and whites quite split depending on if they are working class (Clinton) or middle class (Obama).

Obama looks set to do well in the 8 of the next 9 States and should edge in to the lead, once he has done the momentum may be unstoppable.

Voting on 9 February are three states. Nebraska with 31 delegates is holding a Caucus, Washington with 97 delegates is also holding a Caucus, Louisiana with 66 delegates is holding a Primary but has a large black population. The Virgin Islands also vote, but I am unsure if they have any delegates

On 10 February sees Maine with its 24 delegates have a Caucus.

12 Feb sees the "Chesapeake Primary" where Washington DC with 38 delegates hold a Primary, Maryland with 99 delegates holds a Primary and Virginia with 101 votes hold a Primary. Whilst Obama does typically less well in Primaries all three of the have large numbers of black voters which should help him.

Looking towards 19 February Hawaii with its 29 delegates votes, this state loves Obama due to his growing up there and should be an easy win. Wisconsin with its 92 delegates votes on this day too.

4 March is the bigger (well the bigger after Super-Duper Tuesday) with Texas (228 delegates), Ohio (161 delegates), Rhode Island (32 delegates) and Vermont (23 delegates) all voting. The question is will Obama have enough momentum by then to stop Clinton.

If it rolls on after 4 March the next big state is not until 22 April when Pennsylvania votes with its 188 delegates (Wyoming votes - 18 delegates - on 8 March and Mississippi - 40 delegates - votes on 11 March). Guam with 9 delegates votes on 3 May - surely it won't come down to Guam! 6 May sees North Carolina (134 delegates) and Indiana (84 delegates) vote. 13 May sees West Virginia with its 29 delegates vote, followed on 20 May by Oregon (65 delegates) and Kentucky (60 delegates) vote.

June sees the last three votes before the Convention on 3 June with Montana and its 24 delegates and South Dakota with its 23 delegates vote. The final 63 delegates will be decided in, guess where, Puerto Rico.

According to CNN the latest delegate count is:

Clinton 1033 - Obama 937 (2,025 needed to win)

On the Republican side CNN gives the figures of:

McCain 714, Romney 286, Huckabee 181 and Paul 16 (1,191 needed to win)