European Elections - London

11.00.00am BST (GMT +0100) Thu 7th May 2009

In the third in a series of looking at each of the regions (and nations) for the European Elections I today examine London.

London will this year be electing eight MEPs, down from nine in 2004.

In 2004 the Conservatives topped the poll with 26.53% gaining 3 MEPs, Labour were second with 24.51% and 3 MEPs, The Liberal Democrats third with 15.17% and 1 MEP, UKIP fourth with 12.22% and 1 MEP and the Green Party took the last MEP with 8.35%. Respect were sixth with 4.79%, followed by the BNP on 4.0%, the Christian Peoples Alliance took 2.37%, the English Democrats 0.84% and the Peoples Party for Better Government 0.27%.

Theresa Villiers (Conservative) was first elected, followed by Claude Morales (Labour), then Sarah Ludford (Liberal Democrat), John Bowis (Conservative), Mary Honeyball (Labour), Gerard Batten (UKIP), Charles Tannock (Conservative), Jean Lambert (Green) and Robert Evans (Labour).

I suspect the Labour and UKIP votes will drop and the BNP increase well. I have no idea how the Green vote will do, the Conservatives will increase and I suspect the Liberal Democrat will not change much. London, of course, has no other elections on June so turnout will be down - which may help the BNP sneak over quota.

The Conservatives will top the poll again, this time by more than 38,000 votes. Labour will stay second and the Liberal Democrats third (expect the gap between the top to reduce significantly). That will probably take care of the first five seats, certainly the first four with the Conservatives on two, Labour and the Liberal Democrats on one a piece - if Labour doesn't melt down too much they will get a second.

If we assume Labour get their second there are three seats left, one of which will go to the Conservatives leaving two to be fought over by the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the Greens and the BNP. I think the Green's will hold their seat and fear a three way fight between the Liberal Democrats (for a second), the BNP and UKIP for the last remaining seat - it is most likely UKIP will miss out and its either a Liberal Democrat or a BNP MEP.

To stop the BNP in London there seems little point voting Labour or Conservative but to vote Liberal Democrat.

As with all the regions I will have a quick look at the Liberal Democrat list. The list is headed by current MEP Baroness Sarah Ludford, then Jonathan Fryer - Jonathan would make a superb MEP and Londoners should make a positive vote to elect him (not just to stop the BNP), then it is Diniti Batstone, Christopher Le Breton, John Pindar, Simon James, Caroline Persson and Ben Jones.