Could the Greens win Brighton Pavilion? Or Good Green Spin?

10.48.00am GMT Mon 4th Jan 2010

Brighton Pavillion

Just before New Year the Green Party released an ICM poll of Brighton Pavilion. The poll showed them on 35% (up 14% on the notional 2005 result), the Conservatives second on 27% (+4), Labour, who currently hold the seat, third on 25% (-13) and the Liberal Democrats on 11% (-5).

The poll looks very very good for the Greens and could see them win their first MP in the UK if the poll was accurate. However the poll was only of 533 people which is much smaller than most polls and therefore leads to a higher margin of error.

More importantly before the poll the Greens posted a full colour letter to everyone in the constituency just before the poll thereby increasing awareness of the Greens. However it was their poll and they can choose what to do before it if they want to get the best result possible.

I suspect the Greens have quite a lot of support in Brighton Pavilion and have spent, a fair bit of, money wisely in posting out literature and then following it with a poll to get a great result for future barcharts. Also it was a clever use of money before the election expense limits kick in.